Tuesday 11 January 2011

Gabrielle Giffords' Shooting: The Impact on Obama's Presidency

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Saturday’s shooting spree could prove a turning point in the Obama presidency. Jonathan Alter on how the White House should talk about the tragedy—and the echoes of Clinton at Oklahoma City. Plus, full coverage of the Arizona shooting.

President Obama is off to a good start in his handling of what the networks are now calling “The Tragedy in Tucson.” The moment of silence he asked for on Monday at 11 a.m.—resonant for older Americans of the exact hour on November 11 each year that the World War I Armistice was once observed—is an appropriate expression of what we need right now: Less Noise.

But silence will not be enough. This horrific event offers the president a chance to show leadership qualities that he’s inexplicably hidden away in some blind trust. The shootings and the resulting debate over the climate of incivility play to his strengths as a calm and rational leader. Just as Bill Clinton’s response to the 1995 Oklahoma City bombings helped him recover from his defeat in the 1994 midterms, so this episode may help Obama change—at least in the short term--the trajectory of American politics.

Clinton did more than just speak movingly after Oklahoma City and pull the country together as griever-in-chief. He was able to use the event to discredit the militia movement and tamp down hate speech on talk radio enough that it wasn't much of a factor in his 1996 reelection. The Oklahoma City bombings were later seen by historians and Clinton-era officials as the turning point in his political comeback. Of course the viciousness of the attacks eventually resumed (especially after the Lewinsky scandal) but they weren’t as fierce again until the Obama years.

“The words we use really do matter,” Clinton said, reflecting on the Oklahoma City bombing. “There’s this vast echo chamber, and they go across space and they fall on the serious and the delirious alike.”

Looking back last spring on the 15th anniversary of the bombings, Clinton offered useful perspective. “The words we use really do matter,” he said. “There’s this vast echo chamber, and they go across space and they fall on the serious and the delirious alike.” That’s the critical point in assigning indirect blame for Tucson. We can never know exactly what hate speech produces, but why risk its interaction with underlying mental illness?

Whether or not he attends the funerals for the Tucson victims, Obama’s big chance to lead will come in his State of the Union address on January 25. He can both to speak to the moment thematically and confront the substantive concerns raised by the tragedy.

• Shushannah Walshe: Palin’s Other Arizona ‘Targets’• Peter Beinart: The Tea Party’s Terror Blind Spot• Full coverageConservatives like to argue that these are isolated incidents carried out by lunatics and therefore carry no big lessons (unless the perpetrator is Muslim, in which case it’s terrorism); liberals view them as opportunities to address various social ills. Obama is in the latter category and should act accordingly. “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste,” Rahm Emanuel famously said in 2008. The same goes for a shooting spree that gravely wounds a beloved congresswoman. Congress won’t enact gun control, as it did in the wake of the assassinations of Martin Luther King and Robert F. Kennedy in 1968, but perhaps something positive can come from this.

The State of the Union will almost certainly begin with heart-wrenching symbolism. Ever since Ronald Reagan put a “citizen hero,” Lenny Skutnik, in the balcony of the House chamber after he rescued passengers from the wreck of an Air Florida jet that crashed in the freezing Potomac River in 1982, American presidents have all used their State of the Unions speeches to honor their own “Skutniks,” as they’ve come to be called in Washington. This year will be no different. At least one or two people connected to the horrific incident (The 20-year-old office intern who heroically applied triage to Gabrielle Giffords? A relative of slain federal judge John Roll?) will undoubtedly sit with Michelle Obama at the speech. And it’s hard to imagine that the poignant birth date of 9-year-old Christina Taylor Greene, September 11, 2001, will escape mention.

From there Obama and his speechwriters will try to set the incident in context. This won’t be easy. As I wrote last week, he needs to govern more in poetry than he has thus far. But if the prose is too purple, it falls flat. If he over-analyzes the tragedy, he risks seeming to middle-of-the-roaders as if he’s politicizing it. (The Right will think that in any event). And if he even implies a direct connection between the words and websites of politicians and the twisted mind of Jared Lee Loughner, he’s asking for trouble.

The president’s overall goal should be to champion civility and convince partisans to at least think twice before over-heating their rhetoric. It will be interesting to gauge the applause on the GOP side of the chamber if he extends the critique to talk radio, where the incitement has been the most conspicuous.

The parts of the speech about the tone of public debate—the use of violent imagery by both Republicans and Democrats, including Obama himself—may be among the most important words of his presidency. If he executes properly, he could simultaneously help the country heal and set the parameters of what’s permissible in our politics. The memory of Judge Roll, little Christina and the other victims (Obama will likely name them all, as he did with a much longer list of the dead at Fort Hood) will be powerful. But because Giffords is a member of the House, the references to her will have special resonance inside the chamber. “In the years that some of my colleagues have served—20,30 years—they’ve never seen it like this,” Giffords told MSNBC last March. I’d be amazed if Obama didn’t quote her in his speech.

Eventually the president will pivot away from the tragedy to the main sections of his speech, which, as usual, will include a description of national problems and a list of legislative priorities. While the focus will be on economic growth, other issues will get airtime. Even here the Tucson shootings can be relevant.

Judge Roll, an appointee of George H.W. Bush, spoke out publicly about the 100 unfilled vacancies on the federal bench, the result mostly of a dysfunctional Senate confirmation process. He felt that drug and immigration cases weren’t being heard because there aren’t enough judges. Obama should use Roll’s own words to prod the Senate to action.

Any hard look at the Tucson case suggests that the real cause of the tragedy was untreated mental illness. When Loughner was thrown out of Pima Community College, officials there told his parents he needed mental evaluation. But state and federal mental health budgets are on the chopping block. Obama should ask whether that makes sense and seek more funding.

Finally, the president should speak out forthrightly for better enforcement of existing gun control laws, which the gun lobby is always fighting to undermine. He should re-state his support of Andrew Traver to be head of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosive (ATF). The NRA is currently blocking the nomination because Traver once had the temerity to serve as an adviser to a police association on its gun violence reduction program. Obama can reiterate his (and Giffords’) support for the 2nd Amendment while using this chance to make a case for common sense gun control.

Even if he makes a good speech, the president may find that the memory of the Tucson tragedy fades quickly. Sad to say, if Giffords had died, she would have been mourned and soon the conversation would have moved on. But Giffords lives, thank God, which offers other possibilities. We won’t know for weeks or months whether she can function in public. If she can, she will prove a powerful referee of the boundaries of public discourse—more influential, perhaps, than the president himself.

Jonathan Alter is a national correspondent for Newsweek and an analyst for NBC News and MSNBC. He is the author of “The Promise: President Obama, Year One,” a New York Times bestseller being published this week in paperback with a new epilogue.

thedailybeast.com.

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Thursday 4 November 2010

New reality: Obama, GOP talk compromise, conflict

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A chastened President Barack Obama signaled a new willingness to yield to Republican demands on tax cuts and jettisoned a key energy priority on Wednesday, less than 24 hours after he and fellow Democrats absorbed election losses so severe he called them a shellacking.

But he bluntly swept aside any talk of repeal of his signature health care law — right after the House Speaker-in-waiting, Rep. John Boehner of Ohio, vowed Republicans would do everything they could to wipe the legislation off the books.

Boehner, a 60-year-old veteran of two decades in Congress, spoke at what amounted to his national debut as head of an incoming conservative majority that will include long-experienced lawmakers and tea party-backed political newcomers alike. He declared, "Our new majority will be the voice of the American people as they expressed it so clearly yesterday."

Separately, the Federal Reserve announced new steps designed to further lower interest rates on loans and lead to more job creation, using powers denied mere politicians.

Taken together, the fast-paced series of events confirmed the primacy of the economy as an issue in a country with 9.6 percent unemployment, record home foreclosures and disappointingly slow growth.

In purely political terms, they also underscored a dramatic overnight power realignment after two years of grinding partisanship in Congress followed by a coarse and costly campaign.

For all the uncertainty they loosed, there was little that was ambiguous about the election results. House Republicans picked up 60 seats to capture a majority and led for five more, ending a four-year span in which Nancy Pelosi served as the first female speaker in history.

The GOP picked up at least six seats in the Senate in races reflecting both the peril and the potential of a tea party movement that emerged during the campaign. Tea party favorites were elected to Senate seats in Florida, Kentucky and Utah, but they lost in Nevada, Delaware and Colorado — at a time when Republican victories in all three would have created a 50-50 tie.

Speaking to reporters in the Capitol, Boehner said he and fellow Republicans hope the president "will continue to be willing to work with us" on the priorities of creating jobs and cutting spending.

But, he added, "We're going to continue to renew our efforts for a smaller, less costly and more accountable government here in Washington, D.C."

Obama struck similar themes at his own news conference a few hours later, saying he was eager to sit down with the leaders of both political parties "and figure out how we can move forward together." He added, "It won't be easy," noting the parties differ profoundly in key areas.

Sounding more conciliatory than in the past, the president said he was open to compromise with Republicans on their demand for an extension of all of the Bush-era tax cuts due to expire on Jan. 1, including those that apply to upper-income earners.

"My goal is to make sure we don't have a huge spike in taxes for middle-class families," he said. He omitted mention of his campaign-long insistence that tax cuts be permitted to expire on upper-income families. The issue produced pre-election skirmishes in Congress and frequent disagreement during the campaign.

Obama also virtually abandoned legislation, hopelessly stalled in the Senate, that includes economic incentives to reduce carbon emissions from power plants, vehicles and other sources.

"I'm going to be looking for other means of addressing this problem," he said. "Cap and trade was just one way of skinning the cat."

Republicans have long slammed the bill as a "national energy tax" and jobs killer, and numerous Democrats sought to emphasize their opposition to the measure during their own re-election races.

Boehner, too, was asked about the expiring tax cuts, and he replied simply that he continues to believe they should all be extended.

Questions about the health care law elicited far more forceful answers from both men.

"I believe that the health care bill that was enacted by the current Congress will kill jobs in America, ruin the best health care system in the world and bankrupt our country. That means that we have to do everything we can to try to repeal this bill, and replace it with commonsense reforms that will bring down the cost of health insurance," Boehner said. Earlier, he had called it a "monstrosity."

Obama would hear none of it.

"I think we'd be misreading the election if we thought that the American people want to see us for the next two years re-litigate arguments that we had over the last two years," he said.

He added he was willing to listen to Republican ideas for improving the system. "But I don't think that if you ask the American people, should we stop trying to close the doughnut hole that will help senior citizens get prescription drugs, should we go back to a situation where people with pre-existing conditions can't get health insurance, should we allow insurance companies to drop your coverage when you get sick, even though you had been paying premiums. ..."

Obama attributed the Democrats' election defeat to a feeling on the part of many voters that the economic recovery is too slow. So did House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. The first woman to lead the House will have to give up the gavel after only four years.

"Nine and a half percent unemployment is a very eclipsing event," Pelosi said in an interview with ABC's "World News."

A frequent target of Republican attack ads, Pelosi said she has "no regrets" about pursuing the Democrats' ambitious agenda and has made no decisions about her political future.

"I'll have a conversation with my caucus, I'll have a conversation with my family, and pray over it, and decide how to go forward," said Pelosi. "But today isn't that day."

Ongoing concern over the economy prompted the Federal Reserve to announce it intends to buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds through the middle of next year, on top of an estimated $250 billion to $300 billion already planned.

The hope is the move will drive down interest rates on mortgages and other debt, and as a result create more consumer spending and, in turn, job creation.

On the morning after the election, there was little overt talk of the next election, now two years distant.

But it was clearly on the minds of some.

"Our friends on the other side can change now and work with us to address the issues that are important to the American people that we all understood, or further change obviously can happen in 2012," said Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, leader of a larger minority, but a minority still.

Another Republican, Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, worried aloud that voters could turn against the GOP next time.

"Let us be under no illusion — many of those who cast their vote for Republicans yesterday have their share of doubts about whether we are up to the task of governing; about whether congressional Republicans have learned our lesson," he said.

By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent

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Obama supporters at L.A. rally reflect his 2008 ‘hope’ coalition

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With congressional Democrats fighting against a Republican wave during an election year full of voter anger and frustration, President Obama rallied a diverse crowd of supporters Friday in Los Angeles that closely mirrored the "hope" coalition that elected him in 2008.

The setting near downtown L.A. with an estimated attendance of more than 35,000 was an ideal crossroads for Obama's voter base. A gathering of college students, whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians and people of all ages gathered to hear him speak under the sun.

This election season, thousands of readers have weighed in on Ask America, the Yahoo! News informal polling forum, about Obama, his image and his supporters. Although the van has come and gone from the state, Yahoo! News went to check out the scene to see how his supporters are defending him and the Democrats outside cyberspace.

Obama fans we talked to came to the University of Southern California campus from as far away as Santa Barbara, which is about two hours from L.A. Several students also came from different colleges.

Based on interviews, most of them were there simply to see Obama rather than help him campaign directly for local candidates like incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer and gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown.

No surprise, the president was still popular with this audience, even at a time when the latest Gallup poll found the president's approval rating at 42 percent. Few criticized him out of anger, and all said he needed more time to deliver the change he promised in 2008.

"Too hard to say how much change he's made so far," Dominic Lopez, 22, a communication major at USC, said. "The economy is a drain. He can't fix it in just two years. I'm patient."

Lopez said he mainly came to see the president. As a military chopper flew overhead, cheers went up. "That's how he rolls!" Lopez joked gleefully.

When asked about the tea party, a movement touting fiscal conservatism that is capturing a lot of voter angst this election season, Lopez admitted he'd never heard of it.

"The Boston Tea Party?" he asked.

Another young Obama supporter, Krishna Rajagopalan, 18, who attends Pasadena City College, also drew a blank. Again, "You mean the Boston Tea Party?"

Both responses illustrate how little the midterm elections may be registering with younger Obama voters. Rajagopalan said he had missed class so he could see Obama. He said he is volunteering for the Democrats this election, but his focus remained on the president.

Youth voters, a key constituency for Democrats, do not typically show up for midterm elections, and recent polls show Obama's influence with young voters waning some.

An AP-mtvU poll conducted in September found that 44 percent of college students think Obama is doing a good job, while 27 percent disapprove of his performance. In May 2009, the approval number was 60 percent.

A nonscientific poll in Ask America found that of more than 70,000 responses, 82 percent think young voters are uninspired this midterm election.

Yahoo! user Lidi reflected that feeling, commenting, "The young people made this administration [happen], but they're too disillusioned to care now."

But another important voting bloc for Democrats, African-Americans, seemed the most engaged at the rally.

"The Democrats need to step their game up," Sardia Marley said. "They've been playing it safe, so to speak. If you want to win, you got to dig deep to stay ahead of the GOP. Republicans have now put a little whip on the Democrats. They were sleeping."

Another African-American voter, Charles Pulliam, 64, who lives in Pasadena, said the tea party had set a new level of enthusiasm and agreed that Democrats need to step it up.

"He's still in touch," he said of Obama. "We live in a now-now, me-me society. We lose patience. But he has the long-term vision. When you're out here, you see that he feels, and I feel what he says."

Ask America voters seem to disagree. Sixty-three percent of more than 100,000 responses to a question about Obama's public disconnect said he is out of touch.

After the rally, students trickled out of the central part of the campus, where the rally was held. Jon Rutledge, 19, and Mariam Agazaryan, 19, drove down from the University of California, Santa Barbara, in the morning to see Obama.

Agazaryan said the rally did not have the same "hope" feeling of 2008.

"It seemed too much like, 'We're down, we're trying,'" she said. "But I love the president. I'm still a supporter."

By Thomas Kelley

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Subdued Obama says suffered a voter "shellacking"

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A chastened President Barack Obama on Wednesday pledged to seek compromise with Republicans who won big in congressional elections and admitted he had lost touch with voters who delivered a "shellacking" to him and his Democrats.

But on issue after issue, Obama gave little ground on his positions as the two sides gear up for negotiations over how to tackle the sluggish economy, the main reason the electorate has soured on his leadership.

At a White House news conference, Obama confessed to having suffered a long night on Tuesday as Republicans seized control of the House of Representatives and made gains in the Senate, handing him the biggest defeat of his career and threatening to block his agenda for the second half of his term.

"I feel bad," the subdued president said when asked to reflect on the drubbing his party took at the polls.

While stressing his commitment to seek common ground on issues like tax cuts and energy policy with Republican opponents he has battled for two years, Obama made clear there were some lines he would not cross on his main policy items.

"I'm not suggesting this will be easy," Obama said. "I won't pretend that we'll be able to bridge every difference or solve every disagreement."

Gone was the campaign rhetoric in which Obama skewered Republicans for wanting to take the country back to economic policies he believes have been discredited. Looking tired, Obama spoke in a quiet monotone, with an occasional smile.

Asked if he had lost touch with Americans, Obama said that "in the rush of activity sometimes we lose track of the ways that we connected with folks that got us here in the first place."

With his cerebral style and soaring oratory , Obama inspired voters' trust during the presidential campaign in 2008. But, in office, his "no-drama Obama" demeanor has sometimes come across as detached from people's economic pain.

UNDER PRESSURE

Obama said a readjustment in thinking in response to political setbacks is something every president must face. "Now I'm not recommending to every future president that they take a shellacking like I did last night," he said wryly. "I'm sure there are easier ways to learn these lessons."

Republicans picked up at least 60 House seats in the biggest shift in power since Democrats gained 75 House seats in 1948. The election outcome put pressure on Obama to make a mid-course correction as he seeks to reduce the 9.6 percent jobless rate and prepares to seek re-election in 2012.

Obama largely stuck to positions that he held before the elections. He said it is a top priority for Congress to extend expiring Bush-era tax cuts only for those making $250,000 or less. Republicans also want the tax cuts kept in place for wealthier Americans making above that amount as well.

Obama said he will sit down with congressional leaders in coming weeks to see how to move forward on extending tax cuts.

He said he did not believe the U.S. election result was a repudiation of his sweeping healthcare overhaul. But he signaled he was willing to work with Republicans on "tweaks." Republicans have vowed to repeal the healthcare law, something considered unlikely because of Obama's veto power.

"If the Republicans have ideas for how to improve our healthcare system, if they want to suggest modifications that would deliver faster, more effective reform ... I am happy to consider some of those ideas," Obama said.

Obama, whose former Illinois Senate seat went to a Republican, said he has made progress on the economy but believed "people are frustrated" by weak economic conditions.

"Clearly too many Americans haven't felt that progress yet, and they told us that yesterday. And, as president, I take responsibility for that," he said.

Obama said Americans are worried by spending and deficits, but the country should not cut funding for education or research while trying to bring the deficit down.

"In these budget discussions, the key is to be able to distinguish between stuff that isn't adding to our growth, isn't an investment in our future, and those things that are absolutely necessary for us to be able to increase job growth in the future as well, he said.

Obama acknowledged the need for what one questioner called a "reset" in his relations with U.S. business. Some corporate executives have accused his policies of being anti-business.

And Obama conceded that his chances of getting Congress to pass comprehensive climate change legislation, strongly opposed by Republicans, were "doubtful" for the rest of his term.

By Matt Spetalnick and Steve Holland, Associated Press Writer

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